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WASHINGTON — Afghan President Hamid Karzai's decision Tuesday to accept a United Nations election panel's ruling and agree to a Nov. 7 runoff vote is a diplomatic victory for the Obama administration, but it leaves tough decisions ahead, analysts said.
Bowing to intense U.S. and international pressure, Karzai acknowledged that he fell short of a majority after United Nations-backed auditors stripped him of nearly a third of his votes. Because Karzai is likely to win the second round, there is now a chance a Karzai government will emerge as a credible partner around which to build a new strategy, said Brian Katulis, an observer in the Aug. 20 election and a fellow at the Center for American Progress, a think tank with close ties to the Obama administration.

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However, "I don't think you really can say anything about what impact it has on the strategy until we have a leader that emerges," he said. A key issue will be "how this process is perceived by the Afghan voter" and whether Karzai commits to tackling corruption and drug trafficking, Katulis said.

Obama is mulling whether to grant Gen. Stanley McChrystal's request for additional troops as part of a counterinsurgency strategy that seeks to protect populated areas, train local forces and bolster the government.

Administration officials had hoped the August election would lend legitimacy to Karzai's administration. But the fraud discovered by independent monitors and those backed by the United Nations called Karzai's claimed victory into question, and the White House began reassessing its plans, spokesman Robert Gibbs has acknowledged. Obama called Karzai on Tuesday to welcome his willingness to run in a new election against main rival Abdullah Abdullah. "President Karzai's constructive actions established an important precedent for Afghanistan's new democracy," Obama said.

Election officials will be forced to scramble to organize a new ballot as the fierce Afghan winter approaches. Coalition forces will also have to protect voters throughout a nation in which security is in short supply.

Obama's advisers are divided on whether the new election delays their plans. On Sunday, chief of staff Rahm Emanuel said the administration needs to see whether there is a "credible" Afghan government before Obama decides on sending more troops.

On Tuesday, however, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the administration needs to decide soon on an Afghan war strategy. "We're not just going to sit on our hands, waiting for the outcome of this election and for the emergence of a government in Kabul," he said en route to Tokyo.

"The outcome of the elections and the problems with the elections have complicated the situation for us. But the reality is, it's not going to be complicated one day and simple the next," Gates said.

A runoff win would boost Karzai's political clout, said Zalmay Khalilzad, a former ambassador to Afghanistan who recently returned from the nation and has had contact with Abdullah and Karzai. "If Karzai wins, the challenge for the United States is how to build a working, trusting relationship with him."

It may be too late, said Jeremy Shapiro, a former McChrystal adviser at the Brookings Institution.

Karzai is already tainted by corruption, he said, and the Obama administration has "put themselves in a somewhat difficult situation. ... I'm confused as to why they think a second failed election will be an improvement on the first one."